Ngo-2022, ngaphansi kwesizinda somgomo "we-dual carbon", umhlaba usesigabeni esibalulekile sokuguqulwa kwesakhiwo samandla.Ingxabano ephakeme kakhulu phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine iyaqhubeka nokuholela emananini aphezulu wamandla wezinsalela.Amazwe anaka kakhulu amandla avuselelekayo, futhi imakethe ye-photovoltaic iyakhula.Lesi sihloko sizokwethula isimo samanje kanye namathemba emakethe ye-photovoltaic yomhlaba wonke kusuka ezicini ezine: okokuqala, ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni ye-photovoltaic emhlabeni kanye namazwe / izifunda ezibalulekile;okwesibili, ukuhweba ngaphandle kwemikhiqizo ye-photovoltaic industry chain;okwesithathu, isibikezelo sokuthuthukiswa komkhakha we-photovoltaic ngo-2023;Okwesine ukuhlaziya isimo sokuthuthukiswa kwemboni ye-photovoltaic esikhathini esiphakathi nesikhathi eside.
Isimo sentuthuko
I-1.Imboni ye-photovoltaic yomhlaba wonke inamandla okuthuthukiswa okuphezulu, isekela isidingo semikhiqizo kuchungechunge lwemboni ye-photovoltaic ukuze ihlale iphezulu.
2. Imikhiqizo ye-photovoltaic yaseChina inezinzuzo zokuxhumanisa iketango lezimboni, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwayo kwamanye amazwe kunokuncintisana okukhulu.
3. Amadivayisi angumongo we-Photovoltaic ayathuthuka ekuqondeni kokusebenza kahle okuphezulu, ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okuphansi, nezindleko eziphansi.Ukusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa kwamabhethri kuyisici esibalulekile sobuchwepheshe ukuze sigqabule ibhodlela lemboni ye-photovoltaic.
4. Isidingo sokunaka ubungozi bokuncintisana kwamanye amazwe.Ngenkathi imakethe yesicelo se-photovoltaic yomhlaba wonke igcina isidingo esinamandla, ukuncintisana kwamazwe ngamazwe embonini yokukhiqiza i-photovoltaic kuya ngokuya kudlondlobala.
Ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni ye-photovoltaic emhlabeni kanye namazwe/izifunda ezibalulekile
Ngokombono wokuphela kokukhiqizwa kochungechunge lwemboni ye-photovoltaic, kuwo wonke unyaka ka-2022, eqhutshwa yisidingo semakethe yesicelo, isikali sokukhiqiza sokuphela kokukhiqizwa kochungechunge lwemboni ye-photovoltaic yomhlaba wonke sizoqhubeka nokukhula.Ngokusho kwedatha yakamuva ekhishwe yi-China Photovoltaic Industry Association ngoFebhuwari 2023, umthamo ofakwe emhlabeni wonke we-photovoltaics kulindeleke ukuthi ube ngu-230 GW ngo-2022, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngonyaka ngama-35.3%, okuzoqhubeza ukunwetshwa okwengeziwe kokukhiqiza. umthamo we-photovoltaic industry chain.Kuwo wonke unyaka ka-2022, i-China izokhiqiza amathani angu-806,000 e-photovoltaic polysilicon, okuwukunyuka kwama-59% unyaka nonyaka.Ngokwezibalo zemboni zesilinganiso sokuguqulwa phakathi kwe-polysilicon namamojula, i-polysilicon etholakalayo yaseShayina ehambisana nokukhiqizwa kwamamojula izoba cishe ku-332.5 GW ngo-2022, okuwukunyuka kusuka ku-2021. 82.9%.
Ukubikezela kokuthuthuka komkhakha we-photovoltaic ngo-2023
Umkhuba wokuvula phezulu nokuya phezulu uqhubekile unyaka wonke.Nakuba ikota yokuqala ngokuvamile kuyinkathi engasebenzi yokufakwa e-Europe nase-China, muva nje, amandla amasha okukhiqiza i-polysilicon akhishwe ngokuqhubekayo, okuholele ekwehleni kwentengo ochungechungeni lwezimboni, ekudambiseni ngempumelelo ingcindezi yezindleko eziphansi, futhi kukhuthaze ukukhishwa kwe umthamo ofakiwe.Ngasikhathi sinye, isidingo se-PV yaphesheya kulindeleke ukuthi siqhubeke nokuthambekela kwe-"off-season" ngoJanuwari kusukela ngoFebhuwari kuya kuMashi.Ngokwempendulo yezinkampani zamamojula amakhanda, ukuthambekela kokukhiqizwa kwamamojula ngemuva koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo kucacile, ngokwesilinganiso sokukhula kwenyanga nenyanga kwe-10% -20% ngoFebhuwari, kanye nokwanda okwengeziwe ngoMashi.Kusukela engxenyeni yesibili neyesithathu, njengoba amanani entengo ye-supply chain eqhubeka nokwehla, kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo sizoqhubeka sikhuphuka, futhi kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka, kuzoba nenye igagasi elikhulu lokuxhuma igridi, eliqhuba umthamo ofakiwe ikota yesine ukufinyelela esicongweni sonyaka.Ukuncintisana kwezimboni kuya ngokuya kushuba.Ngo-2023, ukungenelela noma umthelela we-geopolitics, imidlalo yezwe elikhulu, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu nezinye izici kulo lonke uchungechunge lwezimboni kanye nochungechunge lokuhlinzeka kuzoqhubeka, futhi ukuncintisana embonini ye-photovoltaic yamazwe ngamazwe kuzoshuba nakakhulu.Ngokombono womkhiqizo, amabhizinisi andisa ucwaningo nokuthuthukiswa kwemikhiqizo ephumelelayo, okuyisiqalo esiyinhloko sokuthuthukisa ukuncintisana komhlaba wonke kwemikhiqizo ye-photovoltaic;Ngokombono wesakhiwo sezimboni, ukuthambekela kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwemboni ye-photovoltaic yesikhathi esizayo ukusuka endaweni eyodwa kuya kwesatshalaliswayo kanye nokwehlukahlukana kuya ngokuya kuba sobala kakhulu, futhi kuyadingeka ngokwesayensi nangengqondo ukuhlela amaketanga ezimboni zaphesheya kwezilwandle nezimakethe zaphesheya ngokuya ngezimpawu zemakethe ezahlukahlukene kanye izimo zenqubomgomo, okuyindlela edingekayo ukuze amabhizinisi athuthukise ukuncintisana komhlaba wonke futhi ehlise ubungozi bezimakethe.
Isimo sokuthuthukiswa kwemboni ye-photovoltaic esikhathini esiphakathi nesikhathi eside
Imboni ye-photovoltaic yomhlaba wonke inamandla okuthuthukiswa okuphezulu, isekela isidingo semikhiqizo ye-photovoltaic industry chain ukuze ihlale iphezulu.Ngokombono womhlaba wonke, ukuguqulwa kwesakhiwo samandla sibe yizinhlobonhlobo, ihlanzekile nekhabhoni ephansi kuwumkhuba ongenakuhlehliswa, futhi ohulumeni bakhuthaza amabhizinisi ngenkuthalo ukuthuthukisa imboni ye-solar photovoltaic.Esimweni sokushintshwa kwamandla, kuhambisana nezici ezivumayo zokwehla kwezindleko zokuphehla amandla e-photovoltaic ezilethwa inqubekelaphambili yezobuchwepheshe, esikhathini esimaphakathi, isidingo somthamo we-photovoltaic efakwe phesheya kwezilwandle sizoqhubeka nokugcina ukuchuma okuphezulu.Ngokusho kwesibikezelo se-China Photovoltaic Industry Association, umthamo omusha we-photovoltaic ofakwe emhlabeni wonke uzoba ngu-280-330 GW ngo-2023 kanye no-324-386 GW ngo-2025, osekela isidingo semikhiqizo ye-photovoltaic industry ukuze ihlale iphezulu.Ngemuva kuka-2025, uma kucatshangelwa izici zokusetshenziswa kwemakethe kanye nokuhlinzeka kanye nokumataniswa kwesidingo, kungase kube namandla athile emikhiqizo ye-photovoltaic yomhlaba wonke.Imikhiqizo ye-photovoltaic yaseChina inenzuzo yokuxhumanisa iketango lezimboni, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunokuncintisana okuphezulu.Imboni ye-photovoltaic yaseShayina inezinzuzo eziphelele kakhulu ze-photovoltaic embonini yokuhlinzeka nge-photovoltaic, ukusekelwa okuphelele kwezimboni, umphumela wokuxhumanisa okhuphuka nomfula ongezansi, izinzuzo zamandla kanye nokuphumayo zisobala, okuyisisekelo sokusekela ukuthunyelwa komkhiqizo.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, imboni ye-photovoltaic yaseChina iyaqhubeka nokusungula futhi ihola umhlaba ngezinzuzo zobuchwepheshe, ibeka isisekelo sokuthatha amathuba emakethe yamazwe ngamazwe.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ubuchwepheshe bedijithali kanye nobuchwepheshe obukhaliphile buye basheshisa ukuguqulwa kwedijithali kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwemboni yokukhiqiza futhi kwathuthukisa kakhulu ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza.Amadivayisi ayinhloko we-Photovoltaic athuthuka ngendlela yokusebenza kahle kakhulu, ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okuphansi kanye nezindleko eziphansi, kanye nokusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa kwamaseli yiwo. isici sobuchwepheshe esibalulekile semboni ye-photovoltaic ukuze siphule ibhodlela.Ngaphansi kwesisekelo sokulinganisa izindleko nokusebenza kahle, uma ubuchwepheshe bebhethri obunokuguqulwa okuphezulu bufika ekukhiqizeni ngobuningi, buzothatha ngokushesha imakethe futhi buqede amandla okukhiqiza asezingeni eliphansi.Ibhalansi yochungechunge lomkhiqizo kanye nebhalansi ye-supply chain phakathi komfula okhuphukayo kanye nophansi nomfula wochungechunge lwezimboni nakho kuzokwakhiwa kabusha.Njengamanje, amangqamuzana e-silicon e-crystalline asewubuchwepheshe obujwayelekile bemboni ye-photovoltaic, ephinde ihlanganise ukusetshenziswa okuphezulu kwe-silicon yezinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphukayo, futhi ibhekwa njengesizukulwane sesithathu samabhethri asebenza kahle kakhulu efilimu emincane emele amabhethri e-perovskite thin-film. ekongeni amandla, ekuvikelweni kwemvelo, ekusetshenzisweni kokuklama, ukusetshenziswa kwezinto ezingavuthiwe nezinye izici kunezinzuzo ezibalulekile, ubuchwepheshe busesigabeni saselabhorethri, uma impumelelo yezobuchwepheshe isifinyelelwe, ukushintshwa kwamaseli e-silicon e-crystalline kuba ubuchwepheshe obujwayelekile, ukucindezela kwebhodlela. wezimpahla zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphuka nomfula ochungechungeni lwezimboni zizophulwa.Kudingeka kuqashelwe ubungozi bokuncintisana namazwe ngamazwe.Ngenkathi kugcinwa isidingo esinamandla emakethe yesicelo se-photovoltaic yomhlaba wonke, ukuncintisana kwamazwe ngamazwe embonini yokukhiqiza i-photovoltaic kuyakhula.Amanye amazwe ahlela ngenkuthalo ukwenziwa kwasendaweni kokukhiqiza nokukhiqiza kanye nokuthengiswa kwempahla embonini ye-photovoltaic, futhi ukuthuthukiswa kokukhiqizwa kwamandla amasha kuye kwaphakanyiselwa ezingeni likahulumeni, futhi kunemigomo, izinyathelo nezinyathelo.Isibonelo, Umthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla kwamandla emali wase-US wango-2022 uhlela ukutshala imali eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-30 zamakhredithi entela yokukhiqiza ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukucutshungulwa kwamaphaneli elanga nemikhiqizo ebalulekile e-United States;I-EU ihlela ukufeza umgomo we-100 GW wochungechunge lwemboni ye-PV ephelele ngo-2030;I-India yamemezela UHlelo Lukazwelonke Lwamamojula E-Solar PV Asebenzayo, okuhloswe ngawo ukukhulisa ukukhiqizwa kwendawo kanye nokunciphisa ukuncika kwamanye amazwe kumandla avuselelekayo.Ngesikhathi esifanayo amanye amazwe ethule izinyathelo zokukhawulela ukungeniswa kwemikhiqizo ye-photovoltaic yaseChina ngaphandle kwezithakazelo zawo, okunomthelela othile ekuthunyelweni kwemikhiqizo ye-photovoltaic yaseChina.
kusuka: Amabhizinisi aseShayina ahlanganisa amandla amasha.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: May-12-2023